{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-17T11:00:56.846054+00:00",
  "page_url": "https://www.everybodyisanewscritic.com/canadian-economy-dashboard/",
  "overall_status": "Mixed signals",
  "weekly_conclusion": "Canada shows mixed signals: the macro picture is not enough by itself, because household pressure is moderate and essentials/rate pressure still decide what Canadians feel.",
  "indexes": {
    "Canada Economic Momentum Index": {
      "inputs": [
        "Real GDP growth",
        "Employment growth",
        "Business investment",
        "Export growth",
        "Labour productivity"
      ],
      "scores": [
        24.44567078434403,
        63.452240945987334,
        null,
        100,
        null
      ],
      "score": 62.6,
      "previous": 55.2,
      "trend12": [
        55.2,
        55.2,
        55.2,
        55.2,
        55.2,
        55.2
      ],
      "label": "Stable",
      "missing_inputs": [
        "Business investment",
        "Labour productivity"
      ]
    },
    "Household Pressure Index": {
      "inputs": [
        "Rent burden",
        "Mortgage payment burden",
        "Food inflation",
        "Shelter inflation",
        "Debt service ratio",
        "Unemployment",
        "Real wage growth"
      ],
      "pressure": true,
      "scores": [
        null,
        25.4,
        null,
        0,
        null,
        55.99999999999999,
        null
      ],
      "score": 27.1,
      "previous": 27.3,
      "trend12": [
        27.3,
        27.3,
        27.3,
        27.3,
        27.3,
        27.3
      ],
      "label": "Moderate",
      "missing_inputs": [
        "Rent burden",
        "Food inflation",
        "Debt service ratio",
        "Real wage growth"
      ]
    },
    "Inflation Risk Index": {
      "inputs": [
        "Headline CPI",
        "Core CPI",
        "Shelter inflation",
        "Food inflation",
        "Wage growth",
        "Commodity prices",
        "Exchange rate"
      ],
      "pressure": true,
      "scores": [
        35.066345636556726,
        null,
        0,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        51.18525021949076
      ],
      "score": 28.8,
      "previous": 28.8,
      "trend12": [
        20.4,
        20.4,
        20.4,
        20.4,
        28.8,
        28.8
      ],
      "label": "Moderate",
      "missing_inputs": [
        "Core CPI",
        "Food inflation",
        "Wage growth",
        "Commodity prices"
      ]
    },
    "Business Confidence and Investment Index": {
      "inputs": [
        "Capital investment",
        "Business insolvencies",
        "Productivity",
        "SME confidence",
        "Corporate profits",
        "Credit conditions"
      ],
      "scores": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        74.6
      ],
      "score": 74.6,
      "previous": 74.2,
      "trend12": [
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2
      ],
      "label": "Stable",
      "missing_inputs": [
        "Capital investment",
        "Business insolvencies",
        "Productivity",
        "SME confidence",
        "Corporate profits"
      ]
    },
    "Fiscal Flexibility Index": {
      "inputs": [
        "Deficit",
        "Debt-to-GDP",
        "Interest costs",
        "Revenue growth",
        "Program spending growth"
      ],
      "scores": [
        null,
        null,
        74.6,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "score": 74.6,
      "previous": 74.2,
      "trend12": [
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2,
        74.2
      ],
      "label": "Stable",
      "missing_inputs": [
        "Deficit",
        "Debt-to-GDP",
        "Revenue growth",
        "Program spending growth"
      ]
    }
  },
  "metrics": [
    {
      "name": "Real GDP growth",
      "group": "Growth and GDP",
      "value": -0.266629876469679,
      "value_text": "-0.3%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Deteriorating",
      "arrow": "\u2193",
      "move": "worsened",
      "explanation": "Quarterly real GDP index change; latest available GDP vintage.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Nominal GDP trend",
      "group": "Growth and GDP",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct nominal GDP feed pending; do not infer from real GDP.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "GDP per capita",
      "group": "Growth and GDP",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Requires synchronized GDP and population feed; shown as data gap until automated.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "CPI inflation",
      "group": "Inflation and Cost of Living",
      "value": 2.753317281827836,
      "value_text": "2.8%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2024-02-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01CAM657N",
      "status": "Stable",
      "arrow": "\u2193",
      "move": "worsened",
      "explanation": "12-month sum of monthly CPI changes, a transparent inflation proxy.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "CPI excluding food and energy",
      "group": "Inflation and Cost of Living",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2024-02-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2024-02-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01CAM657N",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct core CPI feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Shelter inflation",
      "group": "Inflation and Cost of Living",
      "value": -6.807857931737575,
      "value_text": "-6.8%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/BIS",
      "dataset": "Residential Property Prices for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "Latest BIS period",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS",
      "status": "Improving",
      "arrow": "\u2191",
      "move": "improved",
      "explanation": "Home-price index y/y used as housing-cost pressure proxy; direct shelter CPI pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Rent inflation / rent burden",
      "group": "Inflation and Cost of Living",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-01-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/BIS",
      "dataset": "Residential Property Prices for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "Latest BIS period",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct rent CPI/rent burden feed pending; labelled unavailable.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Mortgage interest / payment pressure",
      "group": "Household Financial Stress",
      "value": 2.27,
      "value_text": "2.3%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxy",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR3TIB01CAM156N",
      "status": "Improving",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "stable",
      "explanation": "Interest-rate proxy for mortgage-renewal/payment pressure.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Food inflation",
      "group": "Household Financial Stress",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2024-02-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2024-02-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01CAM657N",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct food CPI feed pending; labelled unavailable.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Real wage growth",
      "group": "Household Financial Stress",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2024-02-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2024-02-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01CAM657N",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Requires wage growth minus CPI; wage feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Unemployment rate",
      "group": "Labour Market",
      "value": 6.8,
      "value_text": "6.8%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Unemployment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source",
      "lag": "Latest available period from FRED/OECD",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUN64TTCAQ156S",
      "status": "Deteriorating",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "stable",
      "explanation": "Labour-market slack indicator.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Youth unemployment rate",
      "group": "Labour Market",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-04-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Unemployment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source",
      "lag": "Latest available period from FRED/OECD",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUN64TTCAQ156S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct youth LFS feed pending; not estimated.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Employment growth",
      "group": "Labour Market",
      "value": 0.2690448189197467,
      "value_text": "0.3%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Employment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source",
      "lag": "Latest available period from FRED/OECD",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTCAQ156S",
      "status": "Watch",
      "arrow": "\u2193",
      "move": "worsened",
      "explanation": "Quarterly change in employment-rate proxy.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Labour force participation",
      "group": "Labour Market",
      "value": 74.53333,
      "value_text": "74.5%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Employment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source",
      "lag": "Latest available period from FRED/OECD",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTCAQ156S",
      "status": "Improving",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "stable",
      "explanation": "Employment-rate proxy until direct participation feed is connected.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Consumer insolvencies",
      "group": "Household Financial Stress",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2020-01-01",
      "unit": "count",
      "date": "2020-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/World Bank",
      "dataset": "Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada",
      "frequency": "Annual",
      "lag": "Annual; not a current debt-service ratio",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM03CAA156NWDB",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Official insolvency feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Consumer confidence",
      "group": "Household Financial Stress",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2020-01-01",
      "unit": "index",
      "date": "2020-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/World Bank",
      "dataset": "Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada",
      "frequency": "Annual",
      "lag": "Annual; not a current debt-service ratio",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM03CAA156NWDB",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Consumer confidence feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Average home price",
      "group": "Housing and Affordability",
      "value": 140.4085,
      "value_text": "140.41",
      "unit": "index",
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/BIS",
      "dataset": "Residential Property Prices for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "Latest BIS period",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS",
      "status": "High risk",
      "arrow": "\u2191",
      "move": "improved",
      "explanation": "BIS residential property price index as price trend proxy.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Housing starts",
      "group": "Housing and Affordability",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-01-01",
      "unit": "units",
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/BIS",
      "dataset": "Residential Property Prices for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "Latest BIS period",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "CMHC housing starts feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Building permits",
      "group": "Housing and Affordability",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-01-01",
      "unit": "units",
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/BIS",
      "dataset": "Residential Property Prices for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "Latest BIS period",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "StatCan permits feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Mortgage rates",
      "group": "Housing and Affordability",
      "value": 2.27,
      "value_text": "2.3%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxy",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR3TIB01CAM156N",
      "status": "Improving",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "stable",
      "explanation": "Money-market rate proxy for mortgage-rate pressure.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Price-to-income ratio",
      "group": "Housing and Affordability",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-01-01",
      "unit": "ratio",
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/BIS",
      "dataset": "Residential Property Prices for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "Latest BIS period",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct affordability feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Vacancy rate",
      "group": "Housing and Affordability",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-01-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/BIS",
      "dataset": "Residential Property Prices for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "Latest BIS period",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "CMHC vacancy feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Business investment",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct capital investment feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Machinery and equipment investment",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct component feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Non-residential construction",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct component feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Labour productivity",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct productivity feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Unit labour costs",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct ULC feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Business insolvencies",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2020-01-01",
      "unit": "count",
      "date": "2020-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/World Bank",
      "dataset": "Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada",
      "frequency": "Annual",
      "lag": "Annual; not a current debt-service ratio",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM03CAA156NWDB",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Business insolvency feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Small business confidence",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "index",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "CFIB-style direct feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Corporate profits",
      "group": "Business Investment and Productivity",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Corporate profits feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Exports",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": 53185230000.0,
      "value_text": "$53.2B",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Stable",
      "arrow": "\u2191",
      "move": "improved",
      "explanation": "Latest goods export value.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Imports",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": 49747050000.0,
      "value_text": "$49.7B",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Imports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTIMVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Stable",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "stable",
      "explanation": "Latest goods import value.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Trade balance",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": 3438180000.0,
      "value_text": "$3.4B",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Stable",
      "arrow": "\u2193",
      "move": "worsened",
      "explanation": "Exports minus imports.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Export growth",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": 20.18321279285281,
      "value_text": "20.2%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Improving",
      "arrow": "\u2193",
      "move": "worsened",
      "explanation": "Year-over-year goods export growth.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Import growth",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": 5.759324698892257,
      "value_text": "5.8%",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Imports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTIMVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Improving",
      "arrow": "\u2193",
      "move": "worsened",
      "explanation": "Year-over-year goods import growth.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Exports to United States",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-04-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct partner-country trade feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Imports from United States",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-04-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Imports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTIMVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct partner-country trade feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "CAD/USD exchange rate",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": 1.4034,
      "value_text": "1.403 CAD/USD",
      "unit": "CAD per USD",
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "source": "FRED/Board of Governors",
      "dataset": "Canada / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXCAUS",
      "status": "High risk",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "stable",
      "explanation": "A higher value means a weaker Canadian dollar.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Oil prices",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-04-01",
      "unit": "USD/bbl",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Oil feed pending; important for terms-of-trade risk.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Commodity prices",
      "group": "Trade and External Risk",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-04-01",
      "unit": "index",
      "date": "2026-04-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA01CAM667S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Commodity basket feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal revenue",
      "group": "Government Fiscal Position",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Fiscal Monitor feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal expenses",
      "group": "Government Fiscal Position",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Fiscal Monitor feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Deficit or surplus",
      "group": "Government Fiscal Position",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2023-07-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2023-07-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada",
      "frequency": "Quarterly",
      "lag": "This series can lag; label as latest available",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ661S",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Fiscal Monitor feed pending.",
      "lower_good": false
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal debt",
      "group": "Government Fiscal Position",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2020-01-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2020-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/World Bank",
      "dataset": "Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada",
      "frequency": "Annual",
      "lag": "Annual; not a current debt-service ratio",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM03CAA156NWDB",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Public Accounts/Fiscal Monitor feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Debt-to-GDP",
      "group": "Government Fiscal Position",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2020-01-01",
      "unit": "%",
      "date": "2020-01-01",
      "source": "FRED/World Bank",
      "dataset": "Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada",
      "frequency": "Annual",
      "lag": "Annual; not a current debt-service ratio",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM03CAA156NWDB",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct federal debt-to-GDP feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    },
    {
      "name": "Interest costs on debt",
      "group": "Government Fiscal Position",
      "value": null,
      "value_text": "Data not yet available \u2014 latest available period: 2026-06-01",
      "unit": "CAD",
      "date": "2026-06-01",
      "source": "FRED/OECD",
      "dataset": "3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada",
      "frequency": "Monthly",
      "lag": "Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxy",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR3TIB01CAM156N",
      "status": "Data gap",
      "arrow": "\u2192",
      "move": "latest available",
      "explanation": "Direct fiscal interest-cost feed pending.",
      "lower_good": true
    }
  ],
  "triggers": [
    [
      "Major unemployment watch",
      "2026-04-01",
      "Higher joblessness can reveal household stress beneath headline GDP.",
      "Labour, households, insolvencies",
      "Review labour-market section and household pressure index."
    ]
  ],
  "sources": [
    [
      "Statistics Canada",
      "GDP, CPI, Labour Force Survey, wages, business investment, productivity",
      "https://www.statcan.gc.ca/"
    ],
    [
      "Bank of Canada",
      "Policy rate, monetary policy announcements, financial conditions",
      "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/"
    ],
    [
      "CMHC",
      "Housing starts, rent/vacancy context, housing market analysis",
      "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/"
    ],
    [
      "Department of Finance Canada",
      "Fiscal Monitor, budget, Fall Economic Statement",
      "https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance.html"
    ],
    [
      "OSFI",
      "Banking/credit-market risk context",
      "https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/"
    ],
    [
      "OECD / FRED",
      "Convenient API mirror for international macro series",
      "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/"
    ],
    [
      "IMF / World Bank",
      "Debt and cross-country fiscal context",
      "https://data.worldbank.org/"
    ]
  ],
  "errors": []
}