EVERYBODY IS A NEWS CRITIC
Is Canada’s economy improving in a way that Canadians can actually feel?
Canada shows mixed signals: the macro picture is not enough by itself, because household pressure is moderate and essentials/rate pressure still decide what Canadians feel.
Dashboard image · Data CSV download · JSON snapshot · Source log · Archive for 2026-07-17
Stable. Previous: 55.2/100. 12-week trend: 55 → 55 → 55 → 55 → 55 → 55.
Inputs: Real GDP growth, Employment growth, Business investment, Export growth, Labour productivity. Missing/currently unavailable inputs: Business investment, Labour productivity.Moderate. Previous: 27.3/100. 12-week trend: 27 → 27 → 27 → 27 → 27 → 27.
Inputs: Rent burden, Mortgage payment burden, Food inflation, Shelter inflation, Debt service ratio, Unemployment, Real wage growth. Missing/currently unavailable inputs: Rent burden, Food inflation, Debt service ratio, Real wage growth.Moderate. Previous: 28.8/100. 12-week trend: 20 → 20 → 20 → 20 → 29 → 29.
Inputs: Headline CPI, Core CPI, Shelter inflation, Food inflation, Wage growth, Commodity prices, Exchange rate. Missing/currently unavailable inputs: Core CPI, Food inflation, Wage growth, Commodity prices.Stable. Previous: 74.2/100. 12-week trend: 74 → 74 → 74 → 74 → 74 → 74.
Inputs: Capital investment, Business insolvencies, Productivity, SME confidence, Corporate profits, Credit conditions. Missing/currently unavailable inputs: Capital investment, Business insolvencies, Productivity, SME confidence, Corporate profits.Stable. Previous: 74.2/100. 12-week trend: 74 → 74 → 74 → 74 → 74 → 74.
Inputs: Deficit, Debt-to-GDP, Interest costs, Revenue growth, Program spending growth. Missing/currently unavailable inputs: Deficit, Debt-to-GDP, Revenue growth, Program spending growth.Quarterly real GDP index change; latest available GDP vintage.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableDirect nominal GDP feed pending; do not infer from real GDP.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableRequires synchronized GDP and population feed; shown as data gap until automated.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest available12-month sum of monthly CPI changes, a transparent inflation proxy.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsDirect core CPI feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsHome-price index y/y used as housing-cost pressure proxy; direct shelter CPI pending.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodDirect rent CPI/rent burden feed pending; labelled unavailable.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodInterest-rate proxy for mortgage-renewal/payment pressure.
FRED/OECD · 2026-06-01 · Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxyDirect food CPI feed pending; labelled unavailable.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsRequires wage growth minus CPI; wage feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsLabour-market slack indicator.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDDirect youth LFS feed pending; not estimated.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDQuarterly change in employment-rate proxy.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDEmployment-rate proxy until direct participation feed is connected.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDOfficial insolvency feed pending.
FRED/World Bank · 2020-01-01 · Annual; not a current debt-service ratioConsumer confidence feed pending.
FRED/World Bank · 2020-01-01 · Annual; not a current debt-service ratioBIS residential property price index as price trend proxy.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodCMHC housing starts feed pending.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodThis section compares the latest available value with prior periods and labels stale data clearly.
Quarterly real GDP index change; latest available GDP vintage.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableDirect nominal GDP feed pending; do not infer from real GDP.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableRequires synchronized GDP and population feed; shown as data gap until automated.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableThis section compares the latest available value with prior periods and labels stale data clearly.
12-month sum of monthly CPI changes, a transparent inflation proxy.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsDirect core CPI feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsHome-price index y/y used as housing-cost pressure proxy; direct shelter CPI pending.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodDirect rent CPI/rent burden feed pending; labelled unavailable.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodThis section compares the latest available value with prior periods and labels stale data clearly.
Labour-market slack indicator.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDDirect youth LFS feed pending; not estimated.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDQuarterly change in employment-rate proxy.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDEmployment-rate proxy until direct participation feed is connected.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available period from FRED/OECDHousehold reality is evaluated separately from GDP: shelter, food, debt payments, labour risk and real wages can make a positive macro print feel bad at home.
Interest-rate proxy for mortgage-renewal/payment pressure.
FRED/OECD · 2026-06-01 · Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxyDirect food CPI feed pending; labelled unavailable.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsRequires wage growth minus CPI; wage feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2024-02-01 · Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ monthsOfficial insolvency feed pending.
FRED/World Bank · 2020-01-01 · Annual; not a current debt-service ratioConsumer confidence feed pending.
FRED/World Bank · 2020-01-01 · Annual; not a current debt-service ratioAffordability is judged from home prices, rents, permits, starts, mortgage rates and vacancy; unavailable components are labelled.
BIS residential property price index as price trend proxy.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodCMHC housing starts feed pending.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodStatCan permits feed pending.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodMoney-market rate proxy for mortgage-rate pressure.
FRED/OECD · 2026-06-01 · Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxyDirect affordability feed pending.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodCMHC vacancy feed pending.
FRED/BIS · 2026-01-01 · Latest BIS periodPrivate-sector expansion requires capital investment, productivity and profits; missing direct feeds are highlighted as quality-control gaps.
Direct capital investment feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableDirect component feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableDirect component feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableDirect productivity feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableDirect ULC feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableBusiness insolvency feed pending.
FRED/World Bank · 2020-01-01 · Annual; not a current debt-service ratioCFIB-style direct feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableCorporate profits feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableCanada remains exposed to U.S. trade policy, currency swings, oil/commodity volatility, global demand and tariff-sensitive sectors.
Latest goods export value.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthLatest goods import value.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthExports minus imports.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthYear-over-year goods export growth.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthYear-over-year goods import growth.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthDirect partner-country trade feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthDirect partner-country trade feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthA higher value means a weaker Canadian dollar.
FRED/Board of Governors · 2026-06-01 · Latest available monthOil feed pending; important for terms-of-trade risk.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthCommodity basket feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2026-04-01 · Latest available monthFiscal flexibility improves when revenue growth outpaces program spending, debt burden and interest costs; direct fiscal feeds are flagged until connected.
Fiscal Monitor feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableFiscal Monitor feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availableFiscal Monitor feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2023-07-01 · This series can lag; label as latest availablePublic Accounts/Fiscal Monitor feed pending.
FRED/World Bank · 2020-01-01 · Annual; not a current debt-service ratioDirect federal debt-to-GDP feed pending.
FRED/World Bank · 2020-01-01 · Annual; not a current debt-service ratioDirect fiscal interest-cost feed pending.
FRED/OECD · 2026-06-01 · Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxyDate: 2026-04-01
Why it matters: Higher joblessness can reveal household stress beneath headline GDP.
Affected indicators: Labour, households, insolvencies
Recommended update: Review labour-market section and household pressure index.
Canada shows mixed signals: the macro picture is not enough by itself, because household pressure is moderate and essentials/rate pressure still decide what Canadians feel.
Connected momentum inputs show Stable. Export, employment and GDP proxies are compared against latest available vintages.
Household-sensitive pressure remains Moderate; unavailable rent, wage, insolvency and food subfeeds are explicitly treated as data gaps.
Rent, mortgage renewals, food prices, unemployment and real wages determine whether Canadians feel better, even when GDP is positive.
Investment, productivity, rates, exports and credit conditions decide whether the private sector is expanding or merely absorbing higher costs.
Revenue, program spending, debt and interest costs determine fiscal flexibility; direct Fiscal Monitor automation remains a priority source addition.
Major unemployment watch; also watch CAD/USD, oil, Canada-U.S. trade disputes, tariff announcements, bank stress and insolvency changes.
Macro economy and household economy are not the same. GDP, trade and fiscal numbers can improve while households still feel pressure from shelter, food and debt payments.
Indexes use normalized 0–100 scores. For improving indexes, 100 is strongest. For pressure/risk indexes, 100 is most severe. Each formula averages the available normalized inputs and explicitly lists missing inputs; missing data is never guessed. Previous values and 12-week trends come from local archived weekly snapshots.
| Statistics Canada | GDP, CPI, Labour Force Survey, wages, business investment, productivity | https://www.statcan.gc.ca/ |
| Bank of Canada | Policy rate, monetary policy announcements, financial conditions | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/ |
| CMHC | Housing starts, rent/vacancy context, housing market analysis | https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/ |
| Department of Finance Canada | Fiscal Monitor, budget, Fall Economic Statement | https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance.html |
| OSFI | Banking/credit-market risk context | https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/ |
| OECD / FRED | Convenient API mirror for international macro series | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ |
| IMF / World Bank | Debt and cross-country fiscal context | https://data.worldbank.org/ |
| Metric | Source | Dataset/table | Last updated | Frequency | Known lag | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Nominal GDP trend | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| GDP per capita | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| CPI inflation | FRED/OECD | Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada | 2024-02-01 | Monthly | Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months | source |
| CPI excluding food and energy | FRED/OECD | Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada | 2024-02-01 | Monthly | Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months | source |
| Shelter inflation | FRED/BIS | Residential Property Prices for Canada | 2026-01-01 | Quarterly | Latest BIS period | source |
| Rent inflation / rent burden | FRED/BIS | Residential Property Prices for Canada | 2026-01-01 | Quarterly | Latest BIS period | source |
| Mortgage interest / payment pressure | FRED/OECD | 3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada | 2026-06-01 | Monthly | Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxy | source |
| Food inflation | FRED/OECD | Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada | 2024-02-01 | Monthly | Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months | source |
| Real wage growth | FRED/OECD | Consumer Price Index: All Items: Total for Canada | 2024-02-01 | Monthly | Usually latest available month; FRED/OECD lag can be 1+ months | source |
| Unemployment rate | FRED/OECD | Unemployment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source | Latest available period from FRED/OECD | source |
| Youth unemployment rate | FRED/OECD | Unemployment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source | Latest available period from FRED/OECD | source |
| Employment growth | FRED/OECD | Employment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source | Latest available period from FRED/OECD | source |
| Labour force participation | FRED/OECD | Employment Rate: Aged 15-64: All Persons for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Quarterly/monthly vintage depending source | Latest available period from FRED/OECD | source |
| Consumer insolvencies | FRED/World Bank | Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada | 2020-01-01 | Annual | Annual; not a current debt-service ratio | source |
| Consumer confidence | FRED/World Bank | Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada | 2020-01-01 | Annual | Annual; not a current debt-service ratio | source |
| Average home price | FRED/BIS | Residential Property Prices for Canada | 2026-01-01 | Quarterly | Latest BIS period | source |
| Housing starts | FRED/BIS | Residential Property Prices for Canada | 2026-01-01 | Quarterly | Latest BIS period | source |
| Building permits | FRED/BIS | Residential Property Prices for Canada | 2026-01-01 | Quarterly | Latest BIS period | source |
| Mortgage rates | FRED/OECD | 3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada | 2026-06-01 | Monthly | Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxy | source |
| Price-to-income ratio | FRED/BIS | Residential Property Prices for Canada | 2026-01-01 | Quarterly | Latest BIS period | source |
| Vacancy rate | FRED/BIS | Residential Property Prices for Canada | 2026-01-01 | Quarterly | Latest BIS period | source |
| Business investment | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Machinery and equipment investment | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Non-residential construction | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Labour productivity | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Unit labour costs | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Business insolvencies | FRED/World Bank | Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada | 2020-01-01 | Annual | Annual; not a current debt-service ratio | source |
| Small business confidence | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Corporate profits | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Exports | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Imports | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Imports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Trade balance | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Export growth | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Import growth | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Imports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Exports to United States | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Imports from United States | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Imports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| CAD/USD exchange rate | FRED/Board of Governors | Canada / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate | 2026-06-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Oil prices | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Commodity prices | FRED/OECD | International Trade: Exports: Value (Goods): Total for Canada | 2026-04-01 | Monthly | Latest available month | source |
| Federal revenue | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Federal expenses | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Deficit or surplus | FRED/OECD | Real GDP expenditure approach index for Canada | 2023-07-01 | Quarterly | This series can lag; label as latest available | source |
| Federal debt | FRED/World Bank | Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada | 2020-01-01 | Annual | Annual; not a current debt-service ratio | source |
| Debt-to-GDP | FRED/World Bank | Domestic credit to private sector by banks (% of GDP) for Canada | 2020-01-01 | Annual | Annual; not a current debt-service ratio | source |
| Interest costs on debt | FRED/OECD | 3-Month or 90-Day Rates and Yields: Interbank Rates for Canada | 2026-06-01 | Monthly | Latest available month; used as rate-pressure proxy | source |
